Reasoning about the future
doom and beauty
pp. 427-439
Résumé
According to the Doomsday Argument we have to rethink the probabilities we assign to a soon or not so soon extinction of mankind when we realize that we are living now, rather early in the history of mankind. Sleeping Beauty finds herself in a similar predicament: on learning the date of her first awakening, she is asked to re-evaluate the probabilities of her two possible future scenarios.
Détails de la publication
Publié dans:
Hartmann Stephan, Bovens Luc (2007) Bayesian epistemology. Synthese 156 (3).
Pages: 427-439
DOI: 10.1007/s11229-006-9132-y
Citation complète:
Dieks Dennis, 2007, Reasoning about the future: doom and beauty. Synthese 156 (3), Bayesian epistemology, 427-439. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11229-006-9132-y.