Sleeping beauty should be imprecise
pp. 3159-3172
Résumé
The traditional solutions to the Sleeping Beauty problem say that Beauty should have either a sharp 1/3 or sharp 1/2 credence that the coin flip was heads when she wakes. But Beauty’s evidence is incomplete so that it doesn’t warrant a precise credence, I claim. Instead, Beauty ought to have a properly imprecise credence when she wakes. In particular, her representor ought to assign (R(H!eads)=[0,1/2]). I show, perhaps surprisingly, that this solution can account for the many of the intuitions that motivate the traditional solutions. I also offer a new objection to Elga’s restricted version of the principle of indifference, which an opponent may try to use to collapse the imprecision.
Détails de la publication
Publié dans:
(2014) Synthese 191 (14).
Pages: 3159-3172
DOI: 10.1007/s11229-014-0429-y
Citation complète:
, 2014, Sleeping beauty should be imprecise. Synthese 191 (14), 3159-3172. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11229-014-0429-y.