The Jeffreys–lindley paradox and discovery criteria in high energy physics
pp. 395-432
Résumé
The Jeffreys–Lindley paradox displays how the use of a (p) value (or number of standard deviations (z)) in a frequentist hypothesis test can lead to an inference that is radically different from that of a Bayesian hypothesis test in the form advocated by Harold Jeffreys in the 1930s and common today. The setting is the test of a well-specified null hypothesis (such as the Standard Model of elementary particle physics, possibly with “nuisance parameters”) versus a composite alternative (such as the Standard Model plus a new force of nature of unknown strength). The (p) value, as well as the ratio of the likelihood under the null hypothesis to the maximized likelihood under the alternative, can strongly disfavor the null hypothesis, while the Bayesian posterior probability for the null hypothesis can be arbitrarily large. The academic statistics literature contains many impassioned comments on this paradox, yet there is no consensus either on its relevance to scientific communication or on its correct resolution. The paradox is quite relevant to frontier research in high energy physics. This paper is an attempt to explain the situation to both physicists and statisticians, in the hope that further progress can be made.
Détails de la publication
Publié dans:
Dawid Richard (2017) A philosophical look at the discovery of the Higgs boson. Synthese 194 (2).
Pages: 395-432
DOI: 10.1007/s11229-014-0525-z
Citation complète:
Cousins Robert D., 2017, The Jeffreys–lindley paradox and discovery criteria in high energy physics. Synthese 194 (2), A philosophical look at the discovery of the Higgs boson, 395-432. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11229-014-0525-z.